Contratação direta de obras nas concessões de rodovias federais : legalidade, boas práticas regulatórias e os incentivos para o setor

Trabalho de Conclusão de Curso (especialização)—Tribunal de Contas da União, Instituto Serzedello Corrêa, Universidade de Brasília, Centro de Formação de Recursos Humanos em Transportes, 2018. Curso de Especialização em Auditoria de Obras Públicas Rodoviárias.Em meio à crise fiscal, os governos vêm ampliando continuamente a delegação das rodovias federais à iniciativa privada. Desde que fomente a melhoria do serviço e a sua eficiência, a política é válida; todavia, o que se observa é que os usuários não têm conhecimento do nível de inexecução de investimentos nos contratos de concessão. Em todas as 21 concessões de rodovias federais, pode-se verificar relevantes níveis de atraso de obras, os quais, nos casos mais graves, chegam a 100%, conforme apuração da ANTT. Na contramão dessa situação, as tarifas de pedágio vêm sofrendo aumentos acima da inflação. Os acréscimos tarifários são explicados pela inclusão de grandes obras nos contratos, sem licitação e sem desconto. Motivadas pela permissividade da ANTT quanto às inexecuções dos contratos e o acréscimo posterior de obras importantes sem deságio, as empresas são incentivadas a oferecer propostas agressivas nos leilões, a fim de garantir sua entrada no negócio com a perspectiva de compensar posteriormente eventuais perdas, com a execução de obras inseridas via aditivos. Na prática a empresa perde menos com o reequilíbrio das inexecuções contratuais do que ganha com a inserção de novas obrigações na concessão. Pode-se dizer que hoje as principais obras de ampliação do setor em andamento no Brasil ocorrem nas concessões mediante aditivo contratual (sem licitação). Por outro lado, as principais obras, previstas nos contratos de concessão originais, se encontram paralisadas (duplicações, faixas adicionais, contornos etc.). O presente trabalho intenta analisar a juridicidade da Resolução ANTT 3.651/11, que regulamenta a inclusão de obras nas concessões de rodovias, e os efeitos da política de inclusão de obras de grande monta, sem licitação e sem desconto, sobre o setor. Dessa forma, a finalidade é levar ao aprofundamento da discussão em relação aos problemas das concessões de rodovias federais (não conhecidos pela sociedade civil) e aos rumos da política de transportes.In the midst of the fiscal crisis, governments have been steadily expanding the delegation of federal highways to private enterprise. Provided it promotes service improvement and efficiency, the policy is valid; however, what is observed is that users are not aware of the level of non-performance of investments in concession contracts. In all 21 concessions of federal highways, it is possible to verify relevant levels of delay of works, which, in the most serious cases, reach 100%, according to ANTT's calculation. Against this backdrop, toll rates have been rising above inflation. The tariff increases are explained by the inclusion of large works in the contracts, without bidding and without discount. Motivated by the permissiveness of ANTT regarding the non-performance of the contracts and the subsequent increase of important works without negative goodwill, companies are encouraged to offer aggressive proposals in the auctions, in order to guarantee their entry into the business with the prospect of subsequently compensating eventual losses, with the works carried out via additives. In practice, the company loses less with the rebalancing of contractual non-operations than it does with the insertion of new obligations in the concession. It can be said that today the main works of expansion of the sector in progress in Brazil occur in the concessions through contractual additive (without bidding). On the other hand, the main works, foreseen in the original concession contracts, are paralyzed (duplications, additional bands, contours, etc.). This paper attempts to analyze the legality of Resolution ANTT 3.651/11, which regulates the inclusion of works in highway concessions, and the effects of the policy of inclusion of large works, without bidding and without discount, on the sector. In this way, the purpose is to deepen the discussion regarding the problems of concessions of federal highways (not known by civil society) and the directions of the transport policy

Personalized Event-Based Surveillance and Alerting Support for the Assessment of Risk

In a typical Event-Based Surveillance setting, a stream of web documents is continuously monitored for disease reporting. A structured representation of the disease reporting events is extracted from the raw text, and the events are then aggregated to produce signals, which are intended to represent early warnings against potential public health threats. To public health officials, these warnings represent an overwhelming list of "one-size-fits-all" information for risk assessment. To reduce this overload, two techniques are proposed. First, filtering signals according to the user's preferences (e.g., location, disease, symptoms, etc.) helps reduce the undesired noise. Second, re-ranking the filtered signals, according to an individual's feedback and annotation, allows a user-specific, prioritized ranking of the most relevant warnings. We introduce an approach that takes into account this two-step process of: 1) filtering and 2) re-ranking the results of reporting signals. For this, Collaborative Filtering and Personalization are common techniques used to support users in dealing with the large amount of information that they face.Comment: International Meeting on Emerging Diseases and Surveillance. IMED 2011 - Poster Session - Vienna, Austria. February 4-7, 201

Calibration and combination of seasonal climate predictions in tropical and extratropical regionals

[eng] Current technology allows the proliferation of multiple forecast systems developed by different research institutions from all over the world. However, most decision makers need a reliable probabilistic prediction instead of a set of predictions to take an action given the probability of an event to occur. Several studies have shown that the merging of predictions derived from several forecast systems with equal weights yields on average better predictions than the best single forecast system. This approach has been referred to as the simple multimodel (SMM). Nevertheless, none of these studies has shown the existence of a combination method that systematically produces the best predictions. Therefore, this thesis aims at applying different statistical techniques to combine predictions derived from different statistical and dynamical forecast systems to assess whether the performance of the SMM can be improved. These techniques combine the predictions assigning unequal weights to the different forecast systems based on their past performance. A unique feature of this study is the broad nature of the forecast quality assessment, performed using multiple deterministic and probabilistic verification measures and the same verifying observations. This allows comparing the predictions produced by the different combination methods and forecast systems in a coherent way. Besides, most of the forecast systems used in this study are either publicly available or could be easily implemented by the user. This thesis focuses on seasonal prediction of sea surface temperature (SST), near-surface temperature and precipitation in tropical and extratropical regions. It is shown that the predictions of the SMM are often better than the combination methods that assign unequal weights. The difficulty in the robust estimation of the weights due to the small samples available is one of the reasons that limit the potential benefit of the combination methods that assign unequal weights. However, some of the results illustrate under which conditions combination methods that assign unequal weights improve with respect to the SMM predictions. For instance, the combination methods that assign unequal weights improve over the SMM predictions when only a fraction of all single forecast systems have skill as shown for some of the predictions of SST. On the other hand, it is shown that there are cases when combining many forecast systems does not lead to improved forecasts when compared to the best single forecast system. This suggests that a multimodel approach is not necessarily better than a highly skillful forecast system, which highlights the importance of continuously assessing the forecast quality for the specific application of the user.[spa] La tecnología existente permite la proliferación de varios sistemas de predicción, desarrollados por diferentes instituciones de investigación de todo el mundo. Sin embargo, la mayoría de los tomadores de decisión generalmente necesitan una única predicción probabilística fiable para tomar una acción dada la probabilidad de ocurrencia de un evento. En este sentido, varios estudios han demostrado que la combinación de predicciones derivadas de varios sistemas de predicción resulta, en promedio, en una mejor predicción cuando se compara con la predicción del mejor sistema de predicción. No obstante, ninguno de estos estudios ha demostrado la existencia de un método de combinación que produzca las mejores predicciones. Por lo tanto, esta tesis tiene el objetivo de aplicar diferentes técnicas estadísticas para combinar predicciones climáticas estacionales derivadas de diferentes sistemas de predicción. Algunas de estas técnicas ponen pesos desiguales a los diferentes sistemas de predicción teniendo en cuenta su calidad en un período pasado y una de ellas combina todos los sistemas de predicción sin poner pesos. Esta última será referenciada como "simple multimodel" (SMM). Un punto importante de este estudio es el amplio carácter de la verificación de la calidad de las predicciones, ya que se usan varias métricas deterministas y probabi I ísti cas y las mismas observaciones. Esta tesis se centra en la predicción estacional de la temperatura de la superficie del mar (TSM), la temperatura atmosférica próxima a la superficie y la precipitación, en regiones tropicales y extratropicales. Pudimos comprobar que las predicciones de la SMM son frecuentemente mejores que las que derivan de métodos de combinación con coeficientes desiguales a los sistemas de predicción. La dificultad a la hora de estimar pesos robustos, debido sobre todo a las pequeñas muestras disponibles, es una de las razones que limita la robustez de las medidas que estiman el beneficio relativo de los métodos de combinación. Sin embargo, hay algunas situaciones en las que los métodos de combinación con coeficientes desiguales son mejores. Se encontró también situaciones específicas en las que la combinación de predicciones de varios sistemas de predicción no mejora la predicción del mejor sistema

Resistina: una nueva hormona expresada en el tejido adiposo

La resistina es una proteína de 12,5 kDa rica en residuos de cisteína que se secreta principalmente en los adipocitos. El descubrimiento de la resistina pareció ser un principio prometedor para el tratamiento de la resistencia a la insulina inducida por la obesidad. Sin embargo, aunque en roedores su función parece estar relacionada con el empeoramiento de la sensibilidad a la insulina, en humanos todavía no se puede afirmar con claridad su papel. En los roedores, la resistina actúa de forma perjudicial en la ruta de señalización de la insulina en los principales tejidos diana, como son el tejido adiposo, el hígado y el músculo. Esta hormona también estimula la producción hepática de glucosa y sus niveles circulantes son elevados en animales obesos, mientras que estos niveles disminuyen de manera muy significativa después de la restricción alimenticia. Todos estos datos sugieren que además de la resistencia a la insulina, la resistina también ejerce una acción importante en la regulación de la homeostasis metabólica. Además, en humanos, dada su expresión en células mononucleares, es de suponer que esta proteína juega un papel importante en los procesos inflamatorios y/o inmunitarios. Aunque los trabajos que han estudiado sus acciones en relación a la resistencia a insulina inducida por la obesidad son bastante contradictorios, es de esperar que pueda ejercer múltiples funciones biológicas, teniendo en cuenta la variedad de tejidos en que es expresada

Mathematical models of cytotoxic effects in endpoint tumor cell line assays: Critical assessment of the application of a single parametric value as a standard criterion to quantify the dose-response effects and new unexplored proposal formats

The development of convenient tools for describing and quantifying the effects of standard and novel therapeutic agents is essential for the research community, to perform more precise evaluations. Although mathematical models and quantification criteria have been exchanged in the last decade between different fields of study, there are relevant methodologies that lack proper mathematical descriptions and standard criteria to quantify their responses. Therefore, part of the relevant information that can be drawn from the experimental results obtained and the quantification of its statistical reliability are lost. Despite its relevance, there is not a standard form for the in vitro endpoint tumor cell lines' assays (TCLA) that enables the evaluation of the cytotoxic dose-response effects of anti-tumor drugs. The analysis of all the specific problems associated with the diverse nature of the available TCLA used is unfeasible. However, since most TCLA share the main objectives and similar operative requirements, we have chosen the sulforhodamine B (SRB) colorimetric assay for cytotoxicity screening of tumor cell lines as an experimental case study. In this work, the common biological and practical non-linear dose-response mathematical models are tested against experimental data and, following several statistical analyses, the model based on the Weibull distribution was confirmed as the convenient approximation to test the cytotoxic effectiveness of anti-tumor compounds. Then, the advantages and disadvantages of all the different parametric criteria derived from the model, which enable the quantification of the dose-response drug-effects, are extensively discussed. Therefore, model and standard criteria for easily performing the comparisons between different compounds are established. The advantages include a simple application, provision of parametric estimations that characterize the response as standard criteria, economization of experimental effort and enabling rigorous comparisons among the effects of different compounds and experimental approaches. In all experimental data fitted, the calculated parameters were always statistically significant, the equations proved to be consistent and the correlation coefficient of determination was, in most of the cases, higher than 0.98.The authors are grateful to the Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT) of Portugal and FEDER for financial support to CIMO (UID/AGR/00690/2013); and to the Xunta de Galicia for financial support for the post-doctoral research of M. A. Prieto.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Volatile compounds from Rosmarinus officinalis L. and Baccharis dracunculifolia DC. Growing in southeast coast of Brazil

Chemical composition of leaf volatiles of Rosmarinus officinalis and Baccharis dracunculifolia cultured in Southeast of Brazil has been characterized by GC/MS after simultaneous distillation-extraction. The main components in volatiles of these species showed in common α-pinene, myrcene, 1,8 cineole and camphor. Camphor was the major component among volatiles of B. dracunculifolia and R. officinalis with concentrations exceeding 25%. B. dracunculifolia volatiles possessed more sesquiterpenes (21.4%) than R. officinalis (16.7%), such as caryophyllene (1.9%) and α-humulene (0.4%). Lower concentrations of nerolidol and spathulenol were achieved in volatiles of B. dracunculifolia. Considering both species, there was a predominance of monoterpenes

Vasodilator activity of extracts of field Alpinia purpurata (Vieill) K: Schum and A. zerumbet (Pers.) Burtt et Smith cultured in vitro

Nowadays, the high blood pressure is one of the main causes of death and cardiovascular diseases. Vasodilator drugs are frequently used to treat arterial hypertension. Experiments were undertaken to determine whether hydroalcoholic extracts obtained from leaves of field-grown Alpinia purpurata and A. zerumbet cultured in vitro under different plant growth regulators induce a vasodilator effect on Wistar rat mesenteric vascular bed pre-contracted with norepinephrine. Plant extracts were able to induce a long-lasting endothelium-dependent vasodilation. Efficiency on activity of A. purpurata reached 87% at concentration of 60 μg. The extract of A. zerumbet maintained in medium containing IAA, induced the relaxation (17.4%) at 90 μg, as compared to the control (MS0) that showed a better vasodilator effect (60%). These results are in agreement with the quantification of phenolic compounds in the extracts, which were 50% lower for those plants cultured in IAA. A. purpurata was assayed for the first time in relation to its vasodilator activity. This paper showed a strong probability of correlation between the pharmacological activities of A. purpurata with their content in phenolic compounds.Atualmente, a hipertensão arterial é uma das maiores causas de morte e de doenças cardiovasculares. Os vasodilatadores são freqüentemente utilizados no tratamento da hipertensão. Extratos hidroalcoólicos de Alpinia purpurata de campo e de A. zerumbet cultivada in vitro sob diferentes reguladores de crescimento vegetal foram ensaiados no leito mesentérico de ratos Wistar. Os extratos de A. purpurata e A. zerumbet produziram efeito vasodilatador com padrão de resposta dose-dependente de duração prolongada. Extratos da espécie A. purpurata tiveram efeito vasodilatador de 87% na dose de 60 μg. O extrato obtido de folhas de A. zerumbet oriundas das culturas mantidas em meio contendo AIA (ácido indol acético) inibiu o relaxamento (17,4%) na dose de 90 μg em relação ao controle (MS0), com o qual foi verificado melhor efeito vasodilatador (60%). Estes resultados estão de acordo com a concentração de fenóis totais que foi 50% menor para os extratos de plantas cultivadas in vitro em AIA. A espécie A. purpurata foi pela primeira vez ensaiada quanto à atividade vasodilatadora. Os resultados obtidos indicaram a presença de substâncias fenólicas provavelmente correlacionadas à ação terapêutica de A. purpurata

Septoriose em tomateiro orgânico em diferentes sistemas de irrigação e estratégias de manejo de água

O objetivo do trabalho foi avaliar o progresso temporal da septoriose, causada por Septoria lycopersici, em tomateiro orgânico em distintos sistemas e estratégias de manejo de irrigação, nas condições de inverno seco da Região Centro-Oeste. Avaliaram-se seis confgurações de sistemas de irrigação: gotejamento com uma (GO1L) e duas (GO2L) linhas por fleira de plantas; sulco (SU); microaspersão “subcopa” (MIsub ) e acima do dossel (MIalta ); e aspersão convencional (AS). As estratégias de manejo variaram em função da umidade do solo. Regas nos sistemas GO1L e GO2L foram realizadas quando a tensão de água no solo atingia 15-30 kPa (umidade eleva- da), enquanto para SU considerou-se a tensão-limite de 30-60 kPa (umidade moderada). Os demais sistemas foram conduzidos nas duas faixas de tensão. Um tratamento adicional foi irrigado por aspersão, com umidade elevada e solo coberto por palhada (ASpalha). A doença manifestou-se por infecção natural e as avaliações foram semanais. Estimou-se a severidade na metade (Y50) e no final (Ymax ) do curso temporal da epidemia e a área abaixo da curva de progresso da doença (AUDPC). Análise do progresso da doença foi feita ajustando-se os dados de severidade ao modelo de Gompertz. Maiores Ymax ocorreram nos tratamentos irrigados por aspersão convencional (30-35%), enquanto as menores severidades foram verifcadas com microaspersão (6-10%), gotejamento e sulco (4%), indicando que quanto menor o tamanho das gotas de água aspergidas sobre o tomateiro menor é a severidade da doença. Embora em menor intensidade que o tamanho da gota de água, irrigações mais frequentes por aspersão convencional e microaspersão favoreceram a maior severidade da doença. O uso de palhada sobre o solo (ASpalha) reduziu Y50 e AUDPC em relação a AS.The objective of this study was to analyze the temporal progress of septoria leaf spot of tomato, caused by Septoria lycopersici, in different irrigation systems. The experiment was carried out in an organic farming system, in a randomized block design with three replicates. Six irrigation systems were evaluated: GO1L: one drip- line per row of plants; GO2L: two drip-lines; SU: furrow; MIsub : microsprinkler below plant canopy; MIalta : microsprinkler above plant canopy; AS: overhead sprinkler irrigation. Water management strategies varied with soil moisture tensions. Irrigation by drip systems was carried out when soil water tensions reached 15-30 kPa (high moisture), whereas for SU the trigger soil tension was 30-60 kPa (moderate moisture). All other systems were conducted at both soil water tension ranges. One additional treatment was conducted with overhead sprinkler, high soil moisture and straw mulch (ASpalha ). The disease manifested itself by natural infection, and quantifcation was carried out weekly from the onset of symptoms. Disease severity was estimated at the halfway point (Y50 ) and at the end (Ymax ) of the time-course of the epidemics, and the area under the disease progress curve was also calculated (AUDPC). Disease progress analysis was done after ftting severity data to the Gompertz model. Highest Ymax (30-35%) values were found in the AS systems, while the lowest severities were associated with MI (6-10%), GO and SU (4%), indicating that the smaller the water drop size, the lower the disease severity. To a lesser extent, higher frequencies of irrigation in the AS and MI systems also favored higher disease levels. The use of straw mulch (ASpalha ) signifcantly reduced Y50 and AUDPC, when compared to AS